Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
